S&P 500 Market Recap & Outlook: Volatility Amid Tariff Tensions (Late March

S&P 500 Market Recap & Outlook: Volatility Amid Tariff Tensions (Late March – April 2025)

April 18, 2025

Market Overview: Tariff Announcements Trigger Volatility

Over the past three weeks, the S&P 500 has experienced significant fluctuations, largely influenced by President Trump’s announcement of expansive tariffs on imports. On April 3, the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% following the tariff news, marking a sharp reaction from investors concerned about potential economic repercussions.

By April 8, the index was down over 12% from its pre-tariff highs, reflecting growing apprehension about the impact on global trade and corporate earnings.

Temporary Rebound Amid Policy Reassessment

In a surprising turn, on April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on certain tariffs, leading to a significant market rebound. On April 9, a surprise 90-day delay on tariff enforcement sparked a 9.5% rebound—the largest daily gain since WWII.

However, this optimism was short-lived. By April 16, the index had fallen again, closing at 5,275.70, a 2.2% drop for the day, as concerns resurfaced about the long-term implications of trade policies.

Expert Insights: Navigating Uncertainty

Market analysts remain cautious. David Keller, Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research, highlighted weakening momentum and declining market breadth as indicators of potential further downside. He emphasized the importance of clarity in trade policy to restore investor confidence.

Conversely, UBS Global Wealth Management maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, suggesting that while risks of recession and stagflation are present, potential de-escalation in trade tensions could stabilize markets .

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Despite macro volatility, technical traders are watching these critical zones:

Resistance Levels:
- 5,365–5,375: March swing highs; selling pressure mounted here after the bounce
- 5,420: Major resistance and 20-day moving average area
Support Levels:
- 5,260: This week’s intraday low
- 5,100: Key Fibonacci retracement and 50-day moving average
- 4,950: March low and critical trend support — breach here could spark broader downside

Momentum Indicators:

RSI: Hovering near 42 — suggesting a bearish-to-neutral tone, with room for further downside
MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed, momentum decelerating

As we head into the final full trading week of April, markets remain sensitive to policy developments and macro data. However, trading volume is expected to remain light at the start of the week due to the Easter holiday closure.

Market Holiday Notice:

U.S. and European stock exchanges are closed today (Friday, April 18) and **will also remain closed on Monday, April 21, in observance of the Easter long weekend.

Stay connected with R u The 1 for the latest market analyses and investment insights.

LOGIN

S&P 500 Market Recap & Outlook: Volatility Amid Tariff Tensions (Late March – April 2025)

Quick links